The country's demography is witnessing some new
trends. While the working age group (15-64 years) has predictably seen
an increase in the number of youths, the curtains may have begun falling
over the baby boom years that fuelled this bulge in the first place.
These have been indicated by the latest 'Single Year Age Data' released
by the Census of India from its 2011 census numbers.
While
the increase in the proportion of working age group in the country's
population - from 59.61 per cent in 2001 to 63 per cent in 2011 - is
obvious, the proportion of children (0-14 years) has declined
drastically from 35.35 per cent in 2001 to about 31 per cent in 2011. In
other words, those born 15 or more years ago (before 1996) have given
rise to the bulge in the working age group, while the proportion of
children (born after 1997) in the total population have declined in 2011
as against 2001. In fact, the 2011 census data show a drop in the
proportion of population in the lower age groups as compared to 2001
census figures. However, all other age categories have witnessed a jump
in their share in the country's population. (See box: Children's
declining share - a telltale sign)
Laishram Ladu
Singh, population expert and Head of the Department of Mathematical
Demography & Statistics at Mumbai's International Institute for
Population Sciences, suggests that the decline in proportion of children
is a consequence of declining fertility rates. "The fertility rate has
declined and hence the children's population has declined, thus reducing
that age group's share in the total population. At the same time, since
earlier fertility rates were higher, the greater number of children
born in earlier decades have now accumulated and entered the youth
bracket, thus leading to a youth bulge," Singh adds.
Incidentally,
this demographic change corresponds to the period of high economic
growth, rising educational levels and increased awareness and access to
contraceptives, among other things, that may be contributing to the
petering out of the baby boom.
Singh attributes
several factors for the decline in fertility rates, including changed
economic realities in the rapidly growing economy. "More and more women
are working now, and hence the number of children per family has gone
down. Also, migration is a key issue. Many couples work in different
cities and have long-distance relationships, thus with fewer or no
children," he explains.
Given that the proportion
of the 15-19 years' age group in the total population has increased, it
shows the proportion of those born before 1996 is on the rise. This,
combined with the fact that the proportion of population of the 10-14
years' old - who were born between 1997 and 2001 and who in 2011 were
the oldest in the children's bracket - has gone down, it shows that
1996-97 (mid 90s) was when the fertility rates started to fall, and that
could be the watershed year of the beginning of the end of India's baby
boom.
Changing demography
What it means
* The decline of baby boom from the mid-1990s.
*
The decline in the fertility rate corresponds to the period of high
economic growth, rising educational levels and increased awareness and
access to contraceptives.
