While India and other countries have been opposing a review of their
national contributions to tackle climate change, chairperson of the
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Dr. R. K. Pachauri is
firm that unless there is a process of review in place, the direction
the world is taking to tackle climate change will not be clear. A
periodic review of targets and achievements is a must, he said in an
interview to The Hindu on Tuesday.
On the Lima climate talks, he said, “Given the slow pace of the progress
in the past, I don’t think we could have expected too much more. Of
course this also means that there is a lot to do before Paris — one
thing I found satisfying is the fact that all the delegates were quite
focused on the findings of the IPCC and these were referred to
continuously by several people and we feel happy that at least the level
of awareness on the findings has been quite widespread. Frankly that’s
the only basis on which you can generate ambition to do something.”
It is important between now and the new treaty in Paris and beyond, to
focus on the need to keep reviewing what countries were doing in
relation to what needs to be done and what is optimal from the
scientific point of view. “One thing is clear if we don’t act fast
enough then the costs of taking action later on will be very high and in
some cases even the technological options that are required may be
infeasible. It may not be possible to come up with the sharp reduction
that is required simply because technology, infrastructure and
methodologies may not be feasible,” he pointed out.
The 15th Delhi Sustainable Development Summit to be held in February
will also provide a platform to discuss this review, he said. “Since by
then a lot of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)s will
be in, we should be able to come up with a reliable picture of where we
are going — EU, US and China have already announced their targets — for
the others one could make assumptions and see where we are with the two
degree target,” he said.
Carbon budget
“One of the important findings of the fifth assessment report of the
IPCC was the carbon budget and this concept is important for us to see
whether we are going to remain within the two degree limit — if not, we
have to be prepared for a higher temperature increase,” Dr. Pachauri
explained. “Once again that reinforces the need for a regular review —
so we can see how we are headed and how will we carve up that carbon
space — once we have all the INDCS we can aggregate them see now the
world will move ahead.” The IPCC will carry out a review of the INDCS,
but that will be unofficial since it is up to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
He said the review part is very important. “How else do you link what is
being achieved or what is expected to be achieved with what will be
scientifically appropriate?” he asked. He called for a set of measures
by which you ensure complete transparency on a scientific basis.
On India’s stand against ex-ante review of the Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDC)s, he said, “I don’t know why we should
be so sensitive about this and what is the logic behind it. The common
but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) don’t get washed away because
you have a review system and the review doesn’t necessarily go against
maintaining that principle. If you want science to be the guiding driver
of action, then you are not going to be able to find out if you are on
the right track or the path that you are going on will lead to
roadblocks unless you carry out a proper review.”
The IPCC has already said that the targets set at Cancun were not enough
to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels. By the need of the century that the world will
have to move to zero or negative emissions. The IPCC will decide on the
sixth assessment report in February where there is a meeting of the
panel.
India’s actions and contributions
One area where India really needs to get its act together and highlight
it in negotiations as well is on increase in solar capacity, and
hopefully, that is happening and will happen, Dr. Pachauri said. The
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission had laid down the target of
20,000 MW which has been raised to 100,000 MW and it’s a move in the
right direction to ensure energy security, he added.
Adaptation neglected
Dr. Pachauri said adaptation measures to deal with changing climate were
neglected not only at the international level, but also at the national
level. “The immediate priority is to make adaptation an important part
of the development agenda, this will depend on the assessment of impacts
of the future and it involves a significant amount of scientific work.
You have to pick up global climate models and downscale them to
locations where you want to assess adaptation options and that’s a
fairly extensive exercise,” he said. “I don’t think we have identified
the need for it,” he regretted.
“If you want to take in hand adaptation measures, then you have to
assess the impacts in fairly robust and precise terms,” he added. “Most
countries haven’t done enough on adaptation and while the experience is
growing, the world was certainly nowhere near assessing what will
minimise risks of climate change. Since adaptation will have to be
largely carried out at the local level, it was vital to involve local
communities, governments and institutions.”
“Therefore, we aren’t at that stage where we are preparing local
governments effectively to deal with the problem. It will take a major
effort across the length and breadth of the country. Much more needs to
be done,” he said.
While finances from the Green Climate Fund would help, the government
can start off with what it can do at the local level, he remarked. “We
are not doing all the little things that matter — it’s a complex and
sustained exercise that needs to be carried out — we will have to
identify most effective functionary in the local government, and every
state should develop its own ways of functioning.”
While communities are adapting to climate change, the pace of climate
change is accelerating due to human impacts and even those communities
which have practiced adaptation will find it difficult because they
would have reached certain thresholds and tipping points beyond which
adaptation will be difficult, he said. Globally mitigation is essential
because there is a point beyond which adaptation won’t work, he said.
“We have a tradition of adapting to changes, it is not difficult to
build on conventional knowledge but we have to be clever for whom and
where we are making investments in the future,” he pointed out.
