India’s population
growth has always been a big headache for policymakers since
independence. India was the first developing country to declare a policy
to reduce fertility in 1952, but the country’s record in tempering
population growth lagged behind many others. However, fresh demographic
data published by the Census office earlier this week shows India has
made rapid strides in reducing fertility levels over the past decade
and, if current trends continue, India’s population is likely to
stabilize in the next couple of decades.
The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) statistical report shows
India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen 0.3 point over the past
five years to 2.3 in 2013. Over the past decade, it has fallen by
roughly 0.6 point.
TFR is a summary measure of fertility that indicates the average number
of children a woman of child-bearing age is likely to have in a
particular period of time. Assuming zero mortality in women of
child-bearing group, a TFR of 2 would denote that population in a
society has stabilized. In most advanced and middle-income economies, a
TFR of 2.1 is typically considered to be the replacement level. When the
TFR reaches the replacement level, the country moves into the final
phases of demographic transition, in which population first stabilizes,
and then falls as TFR falls below the replacement level.
If the pace of decline in fertility over the past few years continues
over the next half a decade, India’s TFR will have reached the
replacement level.
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While the steady decline in TFR is indeed a welcome sign of India’s
development, there are sharp variations in TFR levels across states. As
many as 11 states—West Bengal, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka
and Odisha—have already attained the replacement level TFR of 2.1. But
nine still have above-replacement TFR. In eight of these, TFR is either
higher or equal to the national average, and it is these states that are
propelling India’s population growth.
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The low-fertility states have already attained the TFR levels of
developed countries, while the high-fertility states have TFR levels
comparable with those of the poorest African nations. West Bengal’s TFR
(1.6) roughly equals that of Canada, and Tamil Nadu’s TFR (1.7) equals
that of Denmark. Uttar Pradesh, with a TFR of 3.1, is comparable with
Namibia, and Bihar with a TFR of 3.4 is comparable with Swaziland.
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar already account for one-fourth of India’s
population, and will continue to account for much of population growth
in the coming decades. At the same time, the low-fertility states will
see their population share declining. These changes can have profound
consequences on migration patterns and reshape politics in the country
(see Mint’s analysis). States with large and growing rural population
are likely to have different policy priorities than states with smaller
and more urbanized population. Similarly, the priorities of states with
ageing and shrinking population could be very different from states with
younger and growing population. Resolving such contradictions could
become a key challenge for India’s polity in the coming years.
Like in other parts of the world, income differences play a role in
driving fertility differences. High-fertility states in India are, on
average, poorer than low-fertility states. Yet, female autonomy could be
playing a bigger role in driving fertility differences in India. A
simple correlation analysis shows that female literacy rates have the
greatest bearing on TFR levels across states, followed by per capita
income and urbanization. The correlation of each of these parameters
with TFR is negative, indicating that higher female literacy, income
growth and expansion in urbanization are all associated with declining
TFR.
Almost all high-fertility states are either low-income ones or fare
poorly in female literacy, or have a large rural population. The
converse holds true for low-fertility states. There are only two major
exceptions, situated in two extreme ends of the country: Gujarat and
Odisha. Gujarat is a high-income urbanized state with above-average
rates of female literacy. Yet, its TFR is above the replacement level.
Odisha is a low-income state with a large rural population. Its female
literacy rate is marginally below the national average. Yet, Odisha’s
fertility levels are much below the national average, and it has
attained the replacement level TFR of 2.1.
All four states in southern India are low-fertility states and have
already attained the replacement level TFR. India’s high-fertility zone
is largely composed of the so-called Bimaru states—Bihar, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. These have been developmental
laggards for a long time now, and are likely to lag behind the rest of
the country in stabilizing their population.
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