Vladimir Putin has once again surprised world
leaders by ordering the withdrawal of Russian
troops from Syria. As in the case of Mr. Putin’s
other major foreign policy moves in his current
term as Russian President, such as the annexation of Crimea
and the intervention in Syria, not many had seen this
coming. While announcing the decision he said the “principal
tasks set for the armed forces of Russia in Syria have
been accomplished”, without detailing the achievements.
Though Mr. Putin’s claims may sound rhetorical, it is not
diicult to understand the rationale behind the move. The
five and a half months of Russian intervention has irrevocably
changed the course of the Syrian civil war. As Russia
started the bombing campaign on September 30, the regime
looked fragile after continuous military setbacks.
President Bashar al-Assad had publicly acknowledged
that his army was struggling with manpower shortages.
But since the Russian involvement started, the regime has
regained some territory, weakened rebel positions and
disrupted rebel supply lines. It even expanded its reach to
the outskirts of Aleppo, once considered completely lost
to militant groups. The timing of the Russian move is also
important. The Geneva peace talks between the regime
and the opposition are set to start. For the first time in the
five years of the conflict, the prospects of peace look less
doomed, if not actually bright. A ceasefire between the rebels
and the regime that came into force two weeks ago is
still holding, however fragile it might be. By announcing
the troop withdrawal, Moscow is putting enormous pressure
on the Assad regime to make real compromises in the
peace talks. Moreover, Mr. Putin does not want Russia to
be dragged into a protracted war, the way the Soviet Union
got trapped in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
However, this does not mean Russia is deserting Syria.
Mr. Putin has made it clear that Russia would continue to
operate the Latakia airbase. Needless to say, the Russian
presence at the Tartus naval facility on the Mediterranean
Sea will continue. This will allow Russia to quickly deploy
troops in Syria in the future if the need arises. So Mr. Putin’s
actual plan appears to be to use the momentum created
in favour of the regime by the Russian intervention to
find a political settlement to the Syrian crisis. This is consistent
with Russia’s position towards Syria. From the advent
of the crisis, Moscow has been insisting on a political
solution. Russia’s concern is less about protecting Mr. Assad
than about retaining the core of the Baathist state,
which, Moscow believes, is vital for the survival of Syria in
the long fight ahead against terrorist groups such as the Islamic
State. Now it is time for the rebels and their backers,
including the United States, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to
respond to Russia’s gestures. They should make use of the
opportunity at the Geneva talks to push for reconciliation
with the regime. Because the only alternative to talks is
pushing Syria into war again.
