Even as India mulls over which fighter aircraft to invest in following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to purchase 36 French Rafale jets, a U.S. expert has said that the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) “falling end strength and problematic force structure, combined with its troubled acquisition and development program[me]s, threaten India’s air superiority over its rapidly modernising rivals, China and Pakistan”.
In a report, Ashley Tellis, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says that air dominance is vital for India if it is to have deterrence stability in southern Asia and for preserving the strategic balance in the wider Indo-Pacific region.
Troublesome neighbours
Mr. Tellis’s report, “Troubles, they come in Battalions: The Manifest Travails of the Indian Air Force,” is a sharp analysis of the current state of the IAF’s preparedness to face down threats from potentially troublesome neighbours. It finds the country’s aerial fighting force to be inadequate on a number of parameters.
For example, the report notes that as of early 2016, the IAF’s fighter force is weaker than the numbers suggest, and “at nominally 36.5 squadrons, it is well short of its sanctioned strength, and many of its frontline aircraft are obsolete”. China and Pakistan have apparently fielded close to 750 advanced air defence or multi-role fighters against the IAF’s 450-odd equivalent. By 2025, China may well be in a position to deploy anywhere between 300 and 400 sophisticated aircraft against India. Pakistan may be able to deploy 100 to 200 advanced fighters.
With India facing this regional threat matrix, Mr. Tellis argues that the IAF’s desire for 42–45 squadrons by 2027, which is the equivalent of around 750–800 aircraft, is “compelling”, yet the likelihood of reaching this goal is “poor”.
The main barrier to embarking on a successful acquisition and modernisation drive, according to the report, is the fact that the IAF is “stymied by serious constraints on India’s defence budget, the impediments imposed by the acquisition process, the meagre achievements of the country’s domestic development organisations, the weaknesses of the higher defence management system, and India’s inability to reconcile the need for self-sufficiency in defence production with the necessity of maintaining technological superiority over rivals”.
Earlier this month, The Hindu had noted that a rare offer to produce F-16 fighters on Indian soil may be forthcoming from Lockheed Martin. If the IAF chooses to avoid this approach, it may have to continue relying on the Sukhoi and MiG platforms and the expected incoming 36 Rafale aircraft, and then cover any shortfall in capability with the indigenous Tejas.
Security posture
This approach may make sense from a cost perspective in that India could save money for a probable future purchase of the F-35. However, it may also slow India’s progress in building up its security posture in the manner envisioned by the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, under which another 90 advanced fighters are still required.
In the context of the Tejas, the Su-30 acquisitions and the PAK-FA co-development programmes, the Carnegie report is clear in identifying technical shortcomings, and notes that “all three tiers of the IAF are currently in trouble”.
The report urges India to be “cautious about expanding the Tejas acquisition beyond six squadrons and consider enlarging the MMRCA component with the cheapest fourth-generation-plus Western fighter available”. It also says that India should seek to expand its investments in advanced munitions “while being realistic about its domestic capacity to produce sophisticated combat aircraft”.
‘The Air Force is stymied by serious constraints on India’s defence budget’
