A United Nations-backed ceasefire between the Saudi-allied forces loyal to President Abd-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and Shia Houthi rebels took effect in Yemen on Sunday, raising hopes that the warring factions may purposefully work towards a negotiated solution. It is not clear how long the truce will hold, given the complexity of the conflict and past experience. Three previous attempts to reach a ceasefire had collapsed. This time around, the rebels and the Saudi-backed forces have announced that they will respect the truce.
Saudi Arabia and its allies started bombing Yemen in March 2015 with the obvious goal of reinstating the ousted government of President Hadi and weakening the Shia Houthi rebels who had captured the capital Sanaa. But after a year of relentless bombing by Riyadh, the Houthis still hold the capital city and control much of western Yemen. In fact, if anyone has secured a strategic advantage out of the Yemeni war, it is al-Qaeda. The stateless chaos amid a disastrous war has helped al-Qaeda expand its footprint steadily in the country, and it now runs a mini state from southeastern Yemen. On the other side, the war has turned Yemen into a humanitarian catastrophe. More than 6,000 people, half of them civilians, have been killed since the Saudi bombing started, and about two million have been displaced. An estimated 80 per cent of the population needs humanitarian assistance, while millions of children face malnutrition. If the war is allowed to rage on, its humanitarian and strategic costs would be much graver.
But there may be no easy way out. The real reason for the conflict lies in the complex geopolitics of the region. Saudi Arabia sees the Houthis as a front for Iran and does not want a Shia-dominated government in its backyard. Western countries, particularly the U.S. and the U.K., have continued to supply weapons to Riyadh and turned their eyes away from the brazen violation of human rights for fear of further antagonising Saudi Arabia, their key West Asian ally that is already piqued by the Iran nuclear deal. This has given the Saudis a free hand in Yemen. And as things stand, they have messed it up. The ceasefire, however, is a starting point. But for it to succeed, the regional powers should set aside their geopolitical games and come together to address the humanitarian problem pragmatically. The Saudis should realise that they cannot forcibly keep away from power the Houthis, who claim to represent the country’s Shia community that makes up between 30 and 45 per cent of the total population. The Houthis and their Iranian backers should also understand that they cannot just take over the whole country. Any practical solution will require an end to external military intervention and a cessation of violence, followed by the formation of a government of national unity. These cannot be achieved unless Iran and Saudi Arabia cooperate, and in a manner that puts their selfish interests aside. Whether they have the vision to do this is uncertain, but a failure to put the region before narrow geopolitical interests would result in this ceasefire meeting the fate of previous ones.
